Circular strategies: The key to fossil-free packaging by 2050

Aiming for a fully circular economy by 2050

The production and use of plastic packaging contribute to climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. Therefore, the Dutch government aims to produce all plastic packaging from recycled materials and renewable resources by 2050.

Currently, only 7% of plastic packaging is made from recycled material.

Policy options contribute to circular goals

In the newly published analysis, RIVM outlines policy options to improve this for the plastic packaging and beverage carton sectors. For this report, TNO analysed packaging trends and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions for the current and future Dutch plastic packaging system.

This was based on two scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario (reflecting historical consumption patterns in relation to gross domestic product and population trends) and a circular scenario (as optimistic as possible within current capabilities).

For the first time in the Netherlands, a systematic life cycle analysis was conducted that distinguishes between different types of packaging, such as beverage cartons, bottles, and flexible packaging.

Increase in plastic packaging

The results show that, if nothing changes, the demand for plastic packaging could increase by 17%, from 386 kilotons in 2022 to 451 kilotons in 2050. Meanwhile, the demand for beverage cartons is expected to remain stable. Currently, 55% of packaging material is lost, and only a small portion is reused for new packaging. This could lead to a 12% increase in greenhouse gas emissions, reaching 1906 kilotons.

However, in a circular scenario and with the use of renewable energy sources, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by 62%, and the need for new materials could decrease by 67%.

Impact of circular strategies

TNO has quantified the impact of 4 different circular strategies: reduction (a combination of refuse and reduce), life extension, material substitution, and high-quality recycling.

The circular strategies of reduction and high-quality recycling promise the most significant reductions, followed by reuse and material substitution. However, the effectiveness of these circular strategies varies across different packaging types.

Bioplastics and CO2 capture as additional options

Even when all circular strategies are combined, the circular scenario would still not achieve the goal of full circularity. Our analysis shows that, by 2050, there would still be a demand for 149 kilotons of primary plastics for consumer packaging, mainly required for flexible packaging and contact-sensitive applications.

To realise a fossil-free packaging system by 2050, additional policies are therefore necessary. The focus should be on the use of alternative raw materials (such as biomass or CO₂ from carbon capture) and on further reducing the demand for packaging. Policy options and considerations for this lie (partly) outside the plastic packaging chain.

Applied model

TNO used the Circular Industrial Transformation System (CITS) model , which can be applied to various materials, for this analysis. CITS was developed to support the combined transitions to a circular, carbon-neutral, and environmentally friendly economy. It also aids decision-making on integrated long-term strategies and policies.

Context research and symposium

This product group analysis of plastic packaging is one of three analyses conducted within the Work Programme for Monitoring and Guiding the Circular Economy 2019–2024. In addition to plastic packaging, housing construction and renewable energy technology were also examined. These studies were carried out under the direction of PBL by RIVM, TNO, and CML, in collaboration with Utrecht University, Rijkswaterstaat, and TU Delft.

Additionally, PBL has produced an overarching report on the similarities and differences between the product group analyses.

At the symposium on 9 September, we will explore potential next steps for politics, policy, civil society organisations, and businesses.

We can also assess the impact of circular R-strategies (such as refuse, reduce, reuse, recycle) for you and identify synergies and trade-offs between the objectives of the circular economy, climate change mitigation, and other environmental effects. Furthermore, considering various energy transition pathways, we can analyse the impact of alternative production and recycling technologies