Don't jump on every innovation bandwagon: TNO's framework to help cities make smarter mobility choices

The pressure to innovate

When Nico Larco recently visited a technology conference in the United States, he witnessed a telling example of how cities struggle with innovation pressure. The city of Orlando was presenting its efforts to be at the forefront of the newest 'innovative' transportation development: flying cars. Nico, strategic advisor at TNO and professor at the University of Oregon, asked the city employee why they would embrace an innovation that seemed as if it would only benefit a small, wealthy segment of the population. The city employee took Nico aside and quietly admitted 'We are mostly doing this because our mayor really wants us to be seen as a place where innovation happens.'

Nico often talks to local government employees worldwide about transportation technologies. And he is well aware that this city was not unique in this. Often cities embrace new technologies because of good intentions, but perhaps for the wrong reasons. 'The pressure is immense,' he explains. 'Tech companies come to cities with ambitious promises about revolutionary solutions. They ask for everything from regulatory changes to direct funding. And cities have to figure out how to respond.'

Making sense of innovation claims

'Cities often find themselves caught between various pressures,' Isabel Wilmink adds. She is a senior scientist at TNO. 'And they don't always get to choose which innovations enter their city. For instance, when e-scooter companies arrived in many European cities, the vehicles simply appeared on the streets. Only afterward did cities start thinking about how to manage the large number of parked e-scooters.' The e-scooter example - or 'stepjes' as Nico has learned to say during his years collaborating with TNO - perfectly illustrates how fast innovation can outpace city planning.

These innovations aren't always easy to assess. 'What seems simple at first glance can be quite complex,' Isabel adds. 'Take autonomous vehicles for example. You need to understand exactly how they will function: Will they operate on fixed routes? Where will they pick up and drop off passengers? Everyone has their own image of how it works, and companies naturally present the most optimistic vision of their innovations, driven by a belief in their solutions.'

Looking at the big picture

In their enthusiasm for new mobility solutions, cities often focus on the immediate benefits while overlooking the broader ripple effects they often have in cities. 'Even departments within the same city can miss important connections,' Isabel points out. 'I've met people who were shocked to learn about the relationship between transport choices and air quality deaths, despite working in the field for years. These indirect effects aren't always obvious, but they're crucial to consider.'

From self-driving to a standstill

Nico illustrates this challenge with a recent example from San Francisco: 'Self-driving cars were deployed about a year and a half ago. Soon after, when a music festival ended, everyone went to the street and got on their phones. This jammed the cellular networks and 10 autonomous vehicles simply stopped where they were because they could no longer contact their control center. How could we not have foreseen that?'

'These kinds of unexpected effects show why thorough assessment is crucial,' Isabel adds. 'For instance, with autonomous vehicles, the direct impact might be improved mobility. But the cascading effects could include changes in where people choose to live - potentially leading to urban sprawl.'

Obvious questions that are often overlooked

Questions like 'is this really the best solution?' seem obvious, but in practice they're often overlooked amid the pressure to innovate. That's why TNO developed a structured assessment framework that helps cities evaluate new mobility concepts systematically. At its core, the framework consists of ten crucial questions that can be applied during three phases: a quick 'sniff phase', a semi in-depth phase, and a comprehensive analysis phase.

Making better choices together

Focusing on practical solutions rather than technological spectacle is at the heart of TNO's assessment framework. Cities can start by using the framework's 'sniff phase' - a quick initial assessment to determine if an innovation deserves further investigation. 'This already helps cities save valuable time and resources,' Isabel says. 'Not every innovation needs a full analysis.'

For more complex questions, TNO can provide deeper expertise. Nico: 'First, we help to understand what questions to ask about these innovations. Then we can help to find the answers using our research expertise.' Isabel adds: 'We don't just look at the technical aspects. TNO also investigates the organisational implications, which is crucial for cities implementing these innovations.'

'Ultimately,' Nico concludes, 'it's about helping cities focus their energy on innovations that really serve their communities. You don't always need flying taxis to create better mobility for your citizens.'

Real innovation is not always sexy

So what are promising mobility developments that truly have the potential to make a serious impact? From both experts, the answer might be surprising. 'For me, public mobility and shared bicycles have enormous potential,' Nico says. 'Look at the OV-fiets system in the Netherlands - it has created huge benefits for people.'

Isabel agrees: 'Sometimes the real innovation that helps the most people in a city is finding new ways to use and organise existing vehicles. For example, automated vehicles could really help public mobility, especially in less dense areas - but only if they're operated as part of a public mobility system. And in cities, the old-fashioned bicycle is still great. You don't need to innovate the bicycle itself; you just need to ensure people can always find one when they need it, provide proper parking, and build good cycling infrastructure.'