High-tech industry in 2040

How can the Netherlands maintain its competitive position in high-tech? Our key insight: in 2040, a successful Dutch high-tech sector will generate around 50% of its revenue from newly created value chains. The sector will also have to be 100% sustainable, 150% more productive, and significantly more resilient.

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The high-tech industry is vital to the Netherlands. The sector drives growth in the economy and is an innovator when it comes to our greatest societal challenges. High-tech is innovative and constantly evolving. Around 2000, the sector focused mainly on consumer electronics, whereas now the emphasis is on equipment for the semiconductor industry.

This transformation of the sector will accelerate in the coming years towards disruptive technologies such as AI, quantum, and photonics. The Dutch high-tech industry is positioning itself in these technologies, which will have an unprecedented impact on the global value chains in which they operate. An increasing need for strategic autonomy, the fragmentation of global markets, and transitions to sustainability will further accelerate the transformation.

Until around 2030, the Netherlands will be investing heavily in the transformation of the high-tech industry, especially through National Growth Fund programmes such as NXTGEN HIGHTECH, Quantum Delta NL, and PhotonDelta. But how do we ensure that Dutch high-tech continues to generate innovations that define the future, as well as economic growth and high-quality jobs beyond that point? This question was the basis for a study conducted by TNO in 2022 and the first half of 2023. We spoke to a wide range of experts, entrepreneurs, and policymakers. This paper stems from that research and presents a new vision of the high-tech industry for 2040.