Circular scenario models for insight into the circular value chain of materials

Future scenarios for technology and policy

Through these models, we map out future scenarios for technology and policy. Our focus is on the broad value chain of materials, as well as specific materials such as the plastics value chain.

By gathering and processing large volumes of data, knowledge, and expertise – exclusively available within TNO – we can analyse system scenarios. This enables governments and large industries to make informed decisions about the transition to a circular economy.

We have developed two circular models for this purpose:

• CITS model: insight into the circular value chain of materials
• PRISM model: deep dive into plastic recycling

TNO's PRISM model for deep dive into plastic recycling impact

In addition to the CITS model, TNO has developed a specialised model that focuses on plastics recycling, known as the Plastic Recycling Impact Scenario Model (PRISM). This model incorporates knowledge of all currently known recycling technologies, including innovative methods such as thermochemical recycling or dissolution. PRISM assists organisations in developing strategies for efficient and circular plastic design and recycling. We achieve this by modelling and optimising current and future plastic recycling routes.

PRISM demonstrates that it is technologically feasible to achieve up to approximately 87% efficiency in recycling, assuming we can manage to prevent all losses. This will require significant technological advancements in sorting and recycling, as well as other factors such as consistent policies, consumer acceptance, and a sense of responsibility across the entire value chain.

Methodology for environmental impact calculations

The PRISM and CITS models both use the extensive knowledge TNO has on doing environmental impact calculations. These are ways of identifying the environmental impact in the chain of a product or process.

They consist of three core elements:

• Good reliable independent data
• Knowledge and expertise of the value chain
• Integrated assessments at system level. This allows us to investigate and solve problems integrally by combining assessment tools such as: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC), Techno-Economic Assessment (TEB) and scenario modelling.

For new technologies, it is more difficult to perform such calculations because the data is not always available. Nevertheless, it is still important to do this as early as possible, as these assessments can help design the technology.

Assessing sustainability early can also save costs and time, which can be spent on developing and marketing technology.

Does your company produce or process plastics? Ensure you are well-prepared for the future with new business opportunities!