Scenarios for a climate-neutral energy system

For example, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by at least 55% by 2030, and the energy transition must be accelerated. Moreover, nuclear power is back on the political agenda. These are reasons for TNO to update the previously drafted future scenarios. One conclusion remains unchanged: a scenario with higher ambitions does not lead to higher costs.

Energy policy recommendations

The white paper contains a series of concrete recommendations for energy and climate policy in the Netherlands, providing new insights and tools for parties involved in the energy transition, such as national government policymakers and other public authorities, energy companies, industry, trade associations, and technology developers. Both scenarios were calculated at the lowest social cost in order to keep the energy system affordable for all customers.

Future energy supply scenarios

Two scenarios sketch future perspectives for energy supply in the Netherlands after 2030, and provide insight into the consequences of the more stringent targets. They show how a climate-neutral energy system can be achieved for different sustainability ambitions. The starting point is to pursue an energy system at the lowest cost to society.

Adapt and transform

In one scenario (ADAPT), we build on our economic strength as a country and maintain our current lifestyle. In the other scenario (TRANSFORM), behavioural change and the deployment of new and innovative technologies lead to a clean, energy-efficient economy. TNO has combined expertise in the field of energy, technology, economics, behaviour, and social innovation. The energy transition is so far-reaching that it must be approached from different angles, and various disciplines must be brought together to be able to offer effective, integrated solutions.

TNO is not presenting these scenarios as blueprints. No one knows what the world will be like in the coming years. But in these scenarios, we outline relevant developments with the aim of stimulating our thinking and facilitating the debate in broad terms. To that end, TNO provides scientifically validated insights. We don’t make the choices, that is a matter for politicians.

TRANSFORM more ambitious than ADAPT

In the TRANSFORM scenario, which is more ambitious than ADAPT in terms of sustainability, entirely new industrial processes are used for the production of chemicals and fuels; in ADAPT, industry changes are more limited. Because of behavioural change and further energy saving, energy demand in the TRANSFORM scenario is lower than in ADAPT. In TRANSFORM, it is assumed that international aviation and shipping, whose emissions fall outside the national climate target, will adopt far-reaching reduction measures.

Furthermore, in this scenario, a sustainability target applies to hydrocarbons used in the production of chemicals and plastics. This raises the bar for the TRANSFORM scenario compared to the 2020 scenario analysis. The ADAPT scenario is less ambitious than TRANSFORM: fossil fuels can still be used as raw materials, and emissions by international aviation and shipping are reduced by only 50%. With ADAPT, the Netherlands does meet the European targets, but its contribution to meeting the Paris climate target is more limited than with TRANSFORM.

Self-sufficient in energy demand

In the future, energy and raw materials will continue to be imported. In the scenarios, switching to renewables reduces dependence on coal, oil, and natural gas by approximately 26% and on natural gas by 33% to 46% by 2030. While in ADAPT fossil fuels are still being used in 2050, in TRANSFORM it is consciously assumed that our country will be able to meet the vast majority of its energy demand using renewable energy sources. The partial import of bio-resources and the exchange of electricity with foreign countries will continue to be necessary.

In TRANSFORM, the limits of what is possible were identified and calculated. Hydrogen plays a crucial role here and is required in large quantities for the production of green chemicals, plastics, and synthetic fuels. In order to produce the hydrogen entirely domestically, the use of solar and wind energy must be maximised by 2050. If that proves insufficient, the use of nuclear power as an additional source will be inevitable.

Additional nuclear power

We must strive to maximise the use of solar and wind for our energy supply and make heavy industry more sustainable. Nuclear power may be a necessary and carbon-free addition, but should not overshadow the ambitions for solar and wind. Indeed, our reasoning in the scenarios is based on the most cost-effective solutions for our society. Allocating nuclear power a greater role than solar and wind does not fit in with these scenarios. Energy demand, in particular due to electrification of industry, is heading towards 300 terawatt-hours (TWh); even exceeding 500 TWh cannot be ruled out (1 TWh equals one billion kWh). In the latter case, solar and wind will no longer be sufficient.

The lower cost of a sustainable energy system

Greenhouse gas reduction targets are met in both scenarios. The cost of the future energy system is even lower than if it were not climate neutral. A more ambitious climate policy need not lead to higher costs. Due to rising fossil fuel prices, the cost of the energy system will increase if fossil fuels remain a substantial part of the energy mix. Switching to renewable energy that is becoming increasingly more cost-effective, leads to lower costs.

Negative emissions

A major difference between the two scenarios relates to CO2. Whereas ADAPT involves the capture of CO2 from fossil sources and its storage in empty gas fields under the North Sea, in TRANSFORM most of the CO2 is biogenic and is reused. However, in this scenario it will still be necessary to store a limited amount of this CO2 underground to offset other hard-to-reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as methane and nitrous oxide. These are so-called negative emissions which can be achieved with biogenic CO2 storage and CO2 extracted from the air using special techniques.

Sustainable production of chemicals and transport fuels

In the new scenario study, particular attention has been focused on the production of chemicals and transport fuels by Dutch industry. In the petrochemical industry, the production processes for these different products are closely interconnected. This will remain the case even if these processes are made more sustainable and make use of renewable energy and raw materials.

In the TRANSFORM scenario, the new study assumes that, by 2050, 90% of the high-value chemicals produced are made from renewable carbon, meaning carbon derived from biomass or CO2 from the air. In addition, recycled plastics are used as a circular option. This is in line with the Coalition Agreement, which refers to an ambitious climate goal for the circular economy.

Carbon removal in the Dutch energy system

Based on the ADAPT and TRANSFORM energy scenarios, we conducted a study in 2025 on the crucial role of carbon removal in a sustainable Dutch energy system.

The report analyses how technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) can contribute to compensating for remaining greenhouse gas emissions.

The key recommendations for policymakers, industry, and knowledge institutions are:

• Invest in technology development to improve CO₂ capture
• Create economic incentives to make investments attractive
• Develop policies to limit fossil fuels
• Implement a certification system for captured CO₂
• Regularly update scenarios based on new insights
• Explore the European market for CO₂ storage.